Return to Responsible Regional Rivalries

A return to normalcy. Today's New York Times article highlights how a new Egypt will orient its foreign policy and demeanor in the region.

Instead of relying primarily on heavy-handed foreign powers (i.e. the United States), a post-Mubarak Egypt will look to assert its own independent agenda which for any reasonable power means keeping a balance.

This is good news for the entire region because up until now it was an alliance of interests most fervently pushing for war, occupation, and violence. This alliance was not bearing the brunt of the costs. Mubarak, AIPAC, Neo-cons, and extremist groups who upheld unrealistic ideological agendas resulting in violence and horror were by no means the proponents of justice. They relied on occupation and dictatorship to carry out their agendas.

Now, however, the rules of the game are beginning to shift. Egypt will be at the forefront of a "return to responsible regional rivalries". This means a balance of power and responsible rivalries, not foreign infused, jacked up insurgencies, murdering, and bloodshed in the name of spreading democracy and stability.

As the Washington Post writes,

In the past, “Egypt could not move except with instructions from America and in a direction that benefited America’s interests,” Abdallah el-Ashaal, a former Egyptian deputy foreign minister, said. “Today Egypt does not require permission from Washington.”

It's not just Egypt, either. The new dynamics of world power are seeing justifiably assertive countries assuming their natural roles. Even India, a close celebrated US ally, is sending messages through its Prime Minister's attendance at the Non-Aligned Movement meeting in Tehran.

“This is India’s signal to Iran that we are still balanced and we are not entirely in America’s camp,’’ said Lalit Mansingh, a former Indian ambassador to the United States.

Turning back to Egypt, as the Times article records:

“This is a reconfiguration of the regional and international politics of the region,” Mr. Shahin said. “It will, of course, raise concerns in Washington and Tel Aviv, but I don’t think this is a confrontational foreign policy. It is a regional foreign policy, tacking a regional problem through the capitals of the four most influential regional states, without looking through the prism of Washington and Tel Aviv.”

This does not mean that Egypt will place itself firmly in one camp over another. Pundits and journalists who are used to operating in US government dictated boundaries of thought can only think of things as strictly "pro-US" or "pro-Iran" in the region. Anything Morsi says that is not an outright pledge of allegiance to Iran is seen as a victory for US foreign policy.

However, for those of us unwilling to make neighbors into enemies, the emergence of an awakened Egypt is just what this region needs. Egypt is the most populous Arab country and a cultural, social and political center of gravity in the Middle East. Egypt, like any other mid-ranged power, will yearn for peace, prosperity, and stability.

The most troubling road block to this vision is the Morsi government's eager acceptance of financial handouts from all over the place -- from Qatar and Saudi Arabia to the IMF and American government. If Egypt cannot build its own prosperous economy it may always be held hostage to foreign conflicting interests.